An Extension to the Procedure for Developing Uncertainty-Consistent Shear Wave Velocity Profiles from Inversion of Experimental Surface Wave Dispersion Data
Getting reliable earthquake risk estimates from ground testing at multiple depths
When engineers test the ground to predict earthquake damage, they often deploy multiple measurement arrays at different sizes to probe deeper. This paper solves a longstanding problem: how to properly measure the uncertainty in those velocity measurements when data comes from mismatched array sizes. The fix works well for both simple and complex soil structures, producing reliable uncertainty estimates even when the raw velocity values themselves are uncertain.
Earthquake risk assessments that guide building codes and insurance depend on accurate, honest estimates of what we don't know about subsurface conditions. This work lets engineers use practical testing setups (multiple-sized arrays) while still rigorously quantifying uncertainty — rather than forcing a choice between depth of measurement or confidence in results. The method produces engineering metrics like site period that are more stable than the raw measurements, making them more useful for actual structural design decisions.