Before You Poll with LLMs: A Deliberative Diagnostic Framework
Do AI chatbots change their minds like real people do?
When researchers tested whether AI chatbots update their political opinions after hearing new arguments—the way human minds actually work—all five leading models failed. GPT-5.1 became more hostile to opposing views after balanced information, while Gemini and Claude overcorrected by shifting beliefs 5–7 times harder than humans do, and DeepSeek barely budged at all.
Companies are increasingly using AI chatbots to simulate public opinion and predict how real people will react to policies or campaigns. If these simulations don't match how human opinions actually change when people encounter new information, the forecasts will be systematically wrong—potentially leading organizations to misread public support or design policies based on distorted predictions of what people will accept.