Pump.fun Graduation Regime Windows: Survival Analysis of 832,941 Token Launches and the Social-Presence Effect
Why most meme coins fail, and which ones actually survive to the next stage
Only about 1 in 500 tokens launched on Solana's pump.fun platform graduate to a larger exchange—a rate that has plummeted threefold since late 2025. Tokens with Telegram communities succeed 9 times more often than those without social media, and those with all three major social channels succeed 17 times more often, while creator self-investment roughly quadruples the survival rate.
Meme coin platforms have become a $2+ billion gambling arena where retail traders lose money at scale. Understanding which tokens survive exposes how social coordination and creator skin-in-the-game drive outcomes—and how the vast majority of launches are designed to fail. The findings show that token survival depends far less on luck than on measurable signals of legitimacy and community management, giving researchers and traders a framework to spot which projects might actually reach an exchange versus which are destined to collapse.