The dynamics of early transoceanic voyages: A resource-coupled model of crew health and survival
How food and disease shaped crew survival on early ocean voyages
A mathematical model of Age of Discovery voyages reveals how depleting food and water supplies triggered disease in crews, even when most sailors technically survived. The model shows that provisioning levels didn't just determine who lived or died—they determined whether enough healthy crew members remained to actually operate the ship.
Understanding what killed explorers and disabled their expeditions matters for understanding why some voyages succeeded and others failed despite similar routes and distances. The finding that a ship could have survivors yet lack enough functional crew to navigate or manage the vessel reframes how we interpret historical records of exploration, and demonstrates how simple mathematical models can reveal hidden dynamics in historical events.